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A decade following the UK embarked on a rushed public vote that polarised the country and triggered chaos, a caution comes from beyond the Irish Sea: it could happen again.

Policymakers and citizens entered unwittingly Brexit and the same could occur with a national vote on a united Ireland, initiating convulsions for which nobody is prepared.

That conveys the caution from two leading journalists from either side of the Irish border who have collaborated to examine the pros and cons of Northern Ireland exiting the UK to establish a different country with the Republic of Ireland.

Administrative Institutions Unprepared

Fintan O’Toole and Sam McBride, have determined that the administrative systems in Ireland and Britain are woefully unprepared for a potentially tense and transformative referendum.

"The lesson of Brexit remains unheeded, which is that developments can emerge unexpectedly and can gather momentum swiftly," O’Toole remarked. "In my opinion that the governmental framework of our region remains highly fragile."

Book Publication Seeks to Provoke Discussion

The team have analysed the governmental, financial and societal reasons for any governmental shift in a volume, The Case For and Against Unification, issued by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.

They hope to encourage dialogue on the issue with a roadshow of speaking events that will take them to Westminster early next month.

"What haunts everybody, or should haunt every person, is the Brexit vote of 2016," commented O’Toole.

"We should prevent a national vote on a binary, unclear proposal whose results have not been clarified because then you find yourself with an highly divided society where the losing side are resistant to losing and the victorious side don't know exactly what it is that they have gained."

Constitutional Provision

Under the Belfast Agreement, the Northern Ireland secretary of state should call a referendum on Irish unification if it is indicated that a majority would vote in favour.

Sinn Féin and other nationalists claim this point is looming, and a non-profit named pro-unification advocates has garnered backing, but both governments and pro-UK factions downplay the possibility, leaving it unclear when or if there could be a referendum.

Absence of Serious Debate

Partisan language for and against unity has hidden the shortage of serious debate, said the journalist.

"People tend to be for or against the notion but the concrete planning which might go beyond that to achieve it hasn't for the most part happened. Much has occurred in universities but very few government figures or campaigners are willing to participate even with the fundamentals. To illustrate, what sort of state should be desired? Unitary? Decentralised?"

Publication's Method

In the publication, none of the commentators advocates unity or the existing arrangement. Each writes two essays that seek objectivity in detailing the rationale for a united Ireland and the case opposing it, marshalling financial and societal statistics, previous instances and structural examples.

Arguments encompass national emblems, levies, healthcare systems, pensions, public liabilities and the danger of loyalist violence. The objective is to enlighten and stimulate dialogue.

"There is significant curiosity in the topic but there has not yet occurred a debate," said the writer. "Dialogue suggests an recognition of the idea that there might be good arguments on each side."

Dual Referendums

A public vote in Northern Ireland would simultaneously prompt one in the Republic of Ireland, where the electorate report they support unity but refuse paying higher taxes or adopting a new flag to recognise pro-UK communities' British culture.

"Authorities in Dublin does need to establish what the offer from pro-unification movements is aside from just saying: 'We desire a unified Ireland and we value you'," stated O’Toole.

Possibility of Public Vote

The journalist considers a national vote in his generation is possible and that it may take place unexpectedly. "It is possible just a mad or a ill-advised or a feckless official who states: 'We should proceed and resolve it.'"

Both pro-unification advocates and unionists have credible, legitimate perspectives, he said. "Somebody will win in this matter and the other side will eventually not succeed but each side has has something to gain from the opposing arguments."

Appeal for Broader Debate

Westminster needed to engage with the dialogue, stated O’Toole. "This concerns your state. It's a British issue as much as it is an Irish matter."